The upcoming World Cup qualification match looks pretty predictable. Estonia vs Italy is a classic David vs Goliath scenario, but don’t expect any miracles. Anything can happen in football. Prediction: Italy will confidently take all three points, but Estonia will try to surprise them on their home turf.
Match Details
- Tournament: UEFA Qualification for the 2026 World Cup.
- Date: 11 October 2025.
- Time: 20:45 Moscow time.
- Venue: A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn, Estonia.
- Capacity: approximately 14,000 fans.
It’s a small stadium, so the atmosphere will be homely. But will that help the hosts? Estonian fans are sure to provide noisy support, but even that is unlikely to make up for the difference in class. Italy is used to playing in large arenas, so the compact stadium in Tallinn will be nothing more than a pleasant backdrop for them.
Statistics of previous matches. Head to head
Looking at the history of these encounters, the picture is bleak for the Estonians. Italy literally crushed them a month ago with a score of 5-0. In fact, the Italians have scored 14 goals in their last four games, conceding only one.
Latest head-to-head results:
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 05.09.2025 | Italy — Estonia | 5:0 |
| 11.11.2020 | Italy — Estonia | 4:0 |
| 03.06.2011 | Italy — Estonia | 3:0 |
| 03.09.2010 | Estonia — Italy | 1:2 |
The Estonians scored their only goal back in 2010! Sad but true. Analysts’ prediction: Estonia’s defence will try to contain the attacks, but the Italians will find gaps. Don’t forget that the Italian team knows how to pick up speed during the match.
As for the current form of the teams: Estonia has one win and four losses in its last five matches (goal difference -10). Italy is playing more consistently — three wins, one draw and one loss (+8 goals). The hosts have many young players, and for them, such matches are more of a chance to gain experience than an opportunity to really fight for points.
UEFA World Cup Qualifiers Current standings
Norway leads the standings of the competitions with 15 points. Italy and Israel are in second place with 9 points each. Estonia is in fourth place with three points. Moldova is at the bottom of the table without a single point.
Standings in the Group I:
| Team | Games | Wins | Draws | Losses | Goals scored | Goals conceded | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 15 |
| Italy | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 9 |
| Israel | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Estonia | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 3 |
| Moldova | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
The Azzurri desperately need three points to fight Norway for first place. The odds on Italy’s success are low, making the bet almost a sure thing, although surprises are always possible in football. For Estonia, this match will be a test of character: will they at least manage to keep the intrigue alive until the end?
Predictions and betting odds
This match seems to be a one-sided prediction — Italy should easily beat the hosts. The score could be 0:3 or even 0:4, especially if Estonia’s defence cracks in the second half. The Baltic team’s lineups include talented players: goalkeeper Karl Hein plays for Arsenal, but one goalkeeper is not enough against Italy’s powerful attack. Fans’ prediction on forums: Estonia will try to hold on for a draw, but their chances of success are minimal.
Bookmakers offer the following odds for the main outcomes:
- Estonia win: 15.00 (astronomical odds!);
- Draw: 7.50;
- Italy win: 1.15.
The betting options are as follows:
- winner — Italy remains the only choice for winner;
- a score of zero from the Estonians has high odds;
- a total of more than 2.5 goals is also worth considering.
Risky tips for experienced players:
- bet on the visitors’ individual total of more than two goals (odds 1.80);
- the ‘both teams will not score’ option is quoted at 1.50;
- accumulator bet: total under 3.5.
This match is unlikely to bring any surprises. Estonia is capable of holding out for the first 45 minutes on home turf, but Italy’s superiority in terms of player class will be the deciding factor.