The fight between Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane, scheduled for October 25 in Abu Dhabi, will definitely be one of the main events of the year. Aspinall is defending his belt for the first time after Jones’ unexpected departure, while Gane is once again hunting for the title. This is the Frenchman’s third attempt!
The odds from the bookmakers seem quite logical. Aspinall is given a prediction of around -400/-460 at DraftKings and Bet Online, while Gane is the underdog at +300-320. These odds are not particularly surprising — the Brit really looks formidable, but such high odds on Gane suggest a possible surprise. Many fans are curious to see how the Aspinall vs Gane odds will change closer to the fight, as the intrigue remains until the very end. What is interesting about this fight is the clash of completely different approaches. Aspinall is used to finishing the fight quickly and harshly, while Gane likes to dance and tire his opponents. The odds will certainly fluctuate before fight night – there are too many variables in play.
Aspinall vs Gane Predictions
Objectively speaking, the prediction here is pretty clear. Aspinall, with a record of 15-3, is a real machine for quick finishes. The average fight time in the UFC is just over two minutes! Seven of his eight victories have ended in a knockout or submission. After dispatching Pavlovich and Blades, the guy looks unstoppable.
Gane (13-2) is a completely different story. The Frenchman is built on boxing and Muay Thai, constantly moving and avoiding exchanges. His recent victories over Spivak and Tuivasa showed progress, although the controversial decision against Volkov puzzled many.
Experts from Mightytips make a prediction that Aspinall has about a 70% chance of finishing the fight in the first two rounds. The logic is clear — the Brit’s grappling against Gane’s 43% takedown defense looks like a recipe for disaster for the Frenchman.
But Gane can turn the situation around if he drags the fight out. If he has improved his grappling, as he claimed, then the Aspinall vs Gane odds could change dramatically. He has a three-inch reach advantage plus better stamina.
Key points:
- Striking: Aspinall hits harder, Gane is more technical;
- Grappling: Aspinall dominates, Gane is weak;
- Stamina: Gane can win in the later rounds.
Overall prediction: an early finish for Aspinall, but Gane is capable of a sensation if he imposes his game.
How to Bet on Aspinall vs Gane
Betting on this match opens up a lot of possibilities. The simplest option is a moneyline bet. Aspinall, with low odds, is suitable for accumulators, while Gane, with +320, can bring in serious money with an upset.
The total rounds are also interesting. Under 1.5 or 2.5 rounds with odds of around 1.85 looks attractive, given Aspinall’s style. Prop bets on the method of victory offer the prediction of a big profit — a knockout from Aspinall is around 2.50.
A few tips for betting:
- Study the statistics on Tapology and UFC Stats;
- Conservative players can combine Aspinall with under;
- Consider risky picks – bets on the exact round or submission – only when you’re really in the know.
It is important to follow the odds movement before the fight and use bonuses from bookmakers. The main thing is to avoid emotional bets! MMA is unpredictable, so any picks must be well-founded.
Tom Aspinall
At 32, Aspinall is a real discovery for the UFC. Since 2020, the Brit has put on a real show in the heavyweight division. Standing 196 cm tall and weighing 114 kg, he combines boxing and grappling at a level that is rarely seen.
His 15-3 record with 11 knockouts and 4 submissions speaks for itself. Aspinall is the UFC record holder for the shortest average fight time. He trains at Team Kaobon, where he honed his explosive style.
His only defeat in the UFC came due to an injury in his first fight with Blaydes. The rematch showed the true class of the Briton – a brutal knockout in the first round. The victory over Pavlovich cemented his status as champion.
Ciryl Gane
At 35, Gane is a veteran with a background in Muay Thai. The Frenchman made his UFC debut in 2019 and quickly established himself as a technical striker. He is 193 cm tall, has a reach of 206 cm, and weighs 111 kg.
His 13-2 record includes 6 knockouts, 3 submissions, and 4 decisions. He trains at MMA Factory, relying on mobility and boxing. Recent victories over Spivak and Tuivasa showed progress, but defeats to Jones and Ngannou revealed problems in grappling.
Gane is a smart, technical fighter, but his chances in this fight depend on his ability to avoid ground fighting.